Kanjorski may have met his match (Standard-Speaker)

BY BORYS KRAWCZENIUK
STAFF WRITER

 

Slightly more than halfway through the latest challenge to his congressional tenure, U.S. Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski could find himself back where he started politically as the fall election season arrives.

As the underdog.

The Democratic congressman shocked the Luzerne County political world in 1984 when his road to Washington kicked off with an upset primary election win over incumbent Rep. Frank Harrison, a darling of local Democrats.

Nowadays, if he isn’t yet an underdog, Kanjorski isn’t looking as invincible as a 12-term congressman normally is.

Armed with a national reputation as a staunch opponent of illegal immigration, Republican Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta is putting forth what might turn out to be the stiffest challenge of Kanjorski’s career.

“My instinct is this race is going to be a fun one to watch,” said David Wasserman, who tracks House races for the Cook Political Report, a Washington newsletter. “I think it’s going to be very competitive.”

The two men are seeking to represent the 11th Congressional District, which includes Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, other parts of Luzerne and Lackawanna counties and all of Carbon, Columbia and Monroe counties.

The traditional political factors still favor Kanjorski. He had $2.1 million left in his campaign coffers at the end of June compared to $321,000 for Barletta. That has allowed Kanjorski to air television commercials for the last month, leaving Barletta to rely on automated telephone calls and free publicity. Kanjorski debuted a new commercial Thursday about how he stood up to President Bush on health care.

In addition, the 11th district is also heavily Democratic, Kanjorski beat Barletta by 14 percentage points in 2002, the district favored Sen. John Kerry over President Bush 53 to 47 percent in 2004 and the current political climate favors Democrats.

Nonetheless, the Cook Political Report and other Washington-based publications that track House races see Barletta’s chances improving. Cook recently downgraded Kanjorski’s chances from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic.”

“In a pro-change election year, Paul Kanjorski could stand to lose,” Wasserman said. “Paul Kanjorski grades as one of the few longtime (Democratic) incumbents who is in any danger. In fact, he’s only one right now.”

A combination of reasons is contributing to the sense that Barletta is making headway in his bid to unseat Kanjorski, said Tim Sahd, editor of House Race Hotline, an online arm of the National Journal, a respected publication that tracks Washington’s political culture.

·          Barletta, because of his illegal immigration fight, is far better known than in 2002, Sahd said. Anecdotally, as Barletta marched in the St. Patrick’s Day parade in Scranton in March, onlookers repeatedly shouted his name as he walked by. He lost Lackawanna County by 2 to 1 in 2002.

“That’s a huge reason this district is competitive,” Mr. Wassserman said.

·          Neither the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which aids Demoocratic congressional candidates, nor the Kanjorski campaign have released results of their polls, although that isn’t unusual in Kanjorski’s case because he never does.

Last month, Barletta’s campaign released its poll from March showing him up by 5 percentage points.

 

·          The commercials. Kanjorski started airing his in mid June and the Democratic campaign committee started attacks on Barletta 11 days ago. The DCCC commercial was its first anywhere of the general election campaign.

 

“The fact that they have to do that means he’s in trouble,” Sahd said of Kanjorski.

Ed Mitchell, Kanjorski’s media consultant, argues his client and the DCCC are simply employing their financial dominance. But Kanjorski had a similar edge in 2002 and didn’t air commercials until much later.

House Race Hotline now ranks Kanjorski 24th on its top 30 list of congressional seats likely to change hands this fall. On Friday, the Washington Post’s “The Fix” column ranked Kanjorski’s seat as 14th among its top 20 likeliest to flip.

“I feel just the opposite,” Mitchell said in response. “I feel the wind is at our back right now.”

While acknowleding the race’s competitiveness, Mitchell is confident all the advertising will re-establish Kanjorski in voters’ minds.

He disputes the contrary evidence. Barletta’s poll is old and has never been released in greater detail, and the Washington-based race trackers tend to rely on what the DCCC and its Republican counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, tell them, he said.

“These people aren’t in the district,” Mitchell said. “They listen to who’s lobbying them and who’s propagandizing them.”

Kanjorski, he said, had 3,800 people on a telephone town meeting Wednesday while Barletta struggled to attract 30 people to the grand opening of his campaign headquarters.

“I think we’ve got a lot of momentum on our side,” he said.

He disputed a characterization of Kanjorski’s first commercial, which touted his local roots, as an introductory one, akin to the kind newcomers usually air.

“The main thing I was trying to get across with that ad is that he hasn’t gone Washington,” Mitchell said. “He hasn’t moved his family to Washington like (former Sen. Rick) Santorum. He’s home in the district on weekends. He’s still the same guy they (voters) sent there.”

Without serious competition since 2002, Kanjorski hasn’t advertised much, which has left some people forgetting all he’s accomplished, Mitchell said.

“There’s a whole generation of young people who we think are going to vote this year and we intend to reach out to them,” he said.

Vince Galko, Barletta’s campaign manager, said the campaign will decide shortly when to begin airing advertising, but doing that in July isn’t worthwhile because voters aren’t paying attention.

“We’re happy with where we are so we don’t feel the need to spend the money in July,” he said.

The Barletta campaign never expected to match Kanjorski’s fundraising, he said, and if Barletta can raise $1 million, that should be adequate to win.

Galko downplayed the Washington view of the campaign, saying “it’s certainly too early to take anything for granted.”

But the DCCC’s attacks on Barletta, which started even before he announced his campaign, are telltale signs, he said. He criticized Kanjorski’s town hall meeting as a taxpayer-funded campaign event that paled in comparison to the almost 11,000 people on the recent telephone town hall of a freshman Pittsburgh area congressman.

He said voters don’t know Kanjorski’s record because he hasn’t accomplished anything.

“It’s no wonder people are wondering what his accomplishments are,” Galko said.

Thomas Baldino, Ph.D., the Wilkes University politcal science professor, remains skeptical about Barletta’s chances because of the race’s underlying dynamics.

“I still maintain it’s still early for one and second, once Ed Mitchell and his people work their magic and soften up Barletta, the race will widen rather than narrow in Kanjorski’s favor,” Baldino said. “Barletta’s got some money, but Kanjorski has a lot of money.”

Even he acknowledges the DCCC ad means concern about Kanjorski’s position.

“It certainly gives Barletta hope,” Baldino said.